India can seal the T20I series against New Zealand on Tuesday, 27 October, when the two teams meet in the third match at the Sky Stadium in Wellington. The match starts at 7:00 AM GMT, which is 12:30 PM IST, and India go into it with a 2-0 lead in the five-match series.
Series so far: India 2-0 up after a last-over chase
India won the second T20I as well, by four wickets, to take a 2-0 lead in the series. New Zealand batted first in that match and posted 180 for 5 in 20 overs. Tim Seifert and Daryl Mitchell fell cheaply and Finn Allen also disappointed, but Glenn Phillips and Bevon Jacobs pulled New Zealand out of trouble. Phillips made 70 off 43 balls and Jacobs scored 58 off 46 deliveries to lift the hosts to a competitive total. India's chase started badly, with five wickets down for only 70 runs, before vice-captain Tilak Varma and Naman Dhir rebuilt the innings. Dhir made 31 before Mitchell Santner dismissed him, and Nitish Kumar Reddy scored 26 off 13 balls in support, as Tilak Varma stayed unbeaten on 51 off 26 deliveries and took India over the line in the last over with four wickets in hand.
Wellington numbers and the key battles
The ground stats at the Sky Stadium in Wellington point to a par score that bowlers can defend. The average first-innings total in T20Is there is 164, while the average second-innings total is 140, so the team batting first has usually held the edge. The form book of this series makes Glenn Phillips the biggest threat for India, with 152 runs in two matches, followed by Bevon Jacobs with 89. For India, Sanju Samson leads with 81 runs, while Naman Dhir has 73. With the ball, New Zealand captain Mitchell Santner leads the series with six wickets, while Arshdeep Singh is India's top wicket-taker with three. The player probabilities for this match also put India's spinners in focus, with Kuldeep Yadav given a 57.41% chance of taking two or more wickets and Varun Chakaravarthy 50%, while Tilak Varma leads the top-batter probabilities for 25 or more runs at 52.94%, ahead of Abhishek Sharma at 48.53%.
Squads for the third T20I
India's squad is led by captain Shreyas Iyer, with Tilak Varma as vice-captain, and includes Abhishek Sharma, Sanju Samson, Vaibhav Sooryavanshi, Ishan Kishan, Axar Patel, Shivam Dube, Nitish Kumar Reddy, Naman Dhir, Prince Yadav, Mayank Yadav, Arshdeep Singh, Bhuvneshwar Kumar, Varun Chakaravarthy and Kuldeep Yadav. New Zealand, led by Mitchell Santner, have Finn Allen, Michael Bracewell, Mark Chapman, Devon Conway, Jacob Duffy, Lockie Ferguson, Zak Foulkes, Matt Henry, Bevon Jacobs, Kyle Jamieson, Adam Milne, Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips, Tim Seifert and Nathan Smith.
Prediction: why India start as favorites
The prediction numbers give India a 55.5% chance of winning against New Zealand's 44.5%, and the series form backs that up. India have already won twice, including a chase from a difficult position, and their batting depth carried them home in the second match. New Zealand, though, are far from out of it at home, with Phillips in top form and Santner taking wickets in both games. If Allen fires at the top and Santner controls the middle overs, the hosts can drag the series to the fourth match. On balance, India start as favorites to win the third T20I in Wellington and seal the series with two matches to spare.
